A thought on Luck

[ARTgames]

Are you talking about the random.org site? Because your right about what its called and does. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator (another good article about it.) I just really doght stick online servers will ever have that hardware or implement it. :/

[JoEL]

Yeah I also doubt stick online would implement this either, but what you brought up was interesting. From what I understand it'd be way to slow for a game.

[Lingus]

I think the real point is that what is currently being used is sufficiently random that it doesn't matter. It doesn't give any one person a better chance over another under almost any circumstance. There is a very slight possibility that someone would be able to exploit it (although, I don't see how) but that possibility is sufficiently low such that there is no reason to believe that anyone has or will take advantage of it.

[ARTgames]

Is it? Do the people who have the rare items also have other rare items? And how much do they play? I'm sure if we just gather that data it will become clear that it is or is not. I don't know my self because I have no idea what items people have.

The only reason I'm question the random is that I do hear complaints a lot that some people seem to get all the cool stuff. I don't know if that true or just jealous people. Another thing that makes me question then random is and I posted a topic about this experiences and it seem other people were having it is that when you get an item it seems your chance of getting another item is higher from the monster type you got it from. This happen to me while i was hunting cac's. If I ever get a hammer from a cac I seem to get a lot on that day. If I never get anything from it that day I never get anything from the cac.

[Seifer]

If it's based on our systems timer, wouldn't someone who just turned on their computer perhaps have better luck than someone whos say, left it on for a month?

As art said, their is some proof to support this. There are a fair number of players I know whom happen to have nearly all the rare items, with only an average amount of effort, or less. Whereas some, Including myself, can't seem to get items no matter how hard they try. And I know I never shut my computer off.

[ARTgames]

As I said Seifer I dont know if Meiun is even using the system timer. But go ahead and try, it cant hurt anything. Report your finding! :D

Also I would like to know if any one has bin experiencing that thing i posted ware if you kill a certain kind of monster and it drops an item your chaince of getting another item seems mutch higer than that first item you got.

[Scotty]

Whatever happened to that word that's bound to land me a bit of back-lash in this conversation: coincidence.

[Lingus]

coincidence.

Art... I'm going to agree with Scotty here. It is very likely that it's all coincidental. That's really how random chances tend to work anyways. Sometimes you're "on" other times not. You'll hear gamblers talk about that. And they're rolling dice and playing on extremely advanced machines. I really don't think you can use that kind of evidence as a basis.

In any case, how would using the system timer affect the chance? I'm seriously not seeing this the way you guys are seeing this. How does having the seed being a lower number imply that they will have a better chance? I'm not entirely sure that's how these algorithms work.

[Seifer]

We have always come to the conclusion that it's just coincidence. We are trying to deduce if their is more to it than that.

[Lingus]

That's fair. I just kind of think you guys are spinning your wheels a bit without some more knowledge regarding exactly how SO generates random numbers. Without knowing the method, all we're doing is speculating. And if it comes down to that, the most likely explanation to any inconsistencies is coincidence.

But yea, if Meiun were to explain how the random numbers are generated, and something in that method shows some kind of bias, I would be willing to accept that. Aside from that, everything that has been posted that I have read regarding these RNG methods seems to show that even the simple methods are suitable for video games even if they have some very slight bias. We wouldn't be seeing those biases in the quantities that SO produces (even in the tens of thousands of drops that happen).

[ARTgames]

We have always come to the conclusion that it's just coincidence. We are trying to deduce if their is more to it than that.

Same here. Does any one have any feedback on 2ed part of my post.

[TheLegendTamer]

Wow... I can't help but feel a little responsible for this thread's creation by stating that the game fire emblem shadow dragon generates it's RNGs based on the time your game starts playing.

Alright, lemme clarify what I meant when I said that. And let me reassure you that Fire emblem is the ONLY game I know for sure does this. I can say that much with certainty.

Fire Emblem Shadow Dragon for the DS has a rather interesting method of generating the random numbers used to determine the outcome of certain random events in the game. Lets say you turn on your DS or DSi, right? Okay when you tap "Start Game" to start playing whatever game is in your DS slot, the game, Fire Emblem shadow dragon will check the date and time. Based on that it will generate 8 numbers. Those numbers are then used to temporarily influence random events.

Let me see if I can make some sort of example. Think of those numbers like bullets loaded in a gun, once they are used it cannot be used again. When the game runs out of this "ammo" it'll behave much like any other game, consistent random % yatta yatta yatta.

The numbers generated are the same for every DS system, the only thing that determines it is the date and time down to the second (not millisecond, if my memory is correct, the intervals of time checked do not go beyond the second.)

With that said, if the same two people started playing their game with identical dates and times the outcome of certain random events remain the same. The time does NOT continue to be checked as you play. It is only checked at the start and once the numbers are generated it's the end of that.

People have in fact used this to their advantage. Expirienting with the clock to figure out convinient times to abuse certain random events, such as critical hit rates, but more importantly the stats gained on lvl up as that is determined by randomness and whatnot. And therefore get better stats on lvl up and have better stats than players who did not abuse this, and it is comically referred to as "clock abuse". This can be done repeatedly.


To be honest, this sounds like bulls*** to me, but I have found a couple of forums that have debated this and most of them concluded, plausible and one actually concluded it as confirmed. However, they all seem to agree, that abusing the clock is too painstaking of a process (a process that involves changing your game's date and time and turning off and back on and starting the game as quickly as possible.) to be considered worth the time doing. Though it works, too some extent, it relies entirely on how well your timing is because if you're off by one second, then the numbers generated are different from the time you were shooting for.

I agree, I highly doubt SO does this and from what I read, this method of random event influence was only done by that specific game. There have been times where I speculated that perhaps Game Maker has this method built into unknown to it's users, and as such I beleived that if that were true that would explain some of the drops people tend to get and how some people seem "luckier" because they log in at about the same time each day. But like I said that's just speculation on my part.

If I am the reason this thread was started then please forgive me if it starts a huge controversial debate. I did not mean something like that too happen.

Again what I said applies only to Fire Emblem Shadow Dragon for the DS. Despite the wifi PVP matches it is not an MMORPG. The it would be interesting if the clock could be abused for stick online, I do not see that possibility becoming reality any time soon, and for that matter any RPG I intend to play. Fire Emblem Shadow Dragon is a remake of the very first RPG style game, with lvl ups various recruitible characters and plots determined by who you don't and do recruit. It's a great novelty and for those want to see what started it all, if that's something that interests you I reccomend you play it.

Mr. Wordy and Unneccessarily Pendantic LegendTamer is done sorry I had to post a book of sorts, but I wanted to cover as much as I could and tell yall everything I know about it. So that I could outright clarify and/or make it easier for those of you who want to delve deeper on this subject. (and that's why I'm wordy, I like helping).

[Meiun]

You guys are reading WAY too deeply into this. Random number generation is a fairly standard operation in modern day programming, and any possible differences would be minuscule at best. I know you guys want to help, but no need to go seeking issues out of what I can only describe as something close to a conspiracy :P But, if it makes any of you feel any better, drops and other calculations based off randomness/luck are being handled differently in V3 anyways.

[T-Rok]

You guys are reading WAY too deeply into this. Random number generation is a fairly standard operation in modern day programming, and any possible differences would be minuscule at best. I know you guys want to help, but no need to go seeking issues out of what I can only describe as something close to a conspiracy :P But, if it makes any of you feel any better, drops and other calculations based off randomness/luck are being handled differently in V3 anyways.

Perhaps an increased chance of a drop as you level higher? xD Although the highest level would have to be next to unlimited :P

[Meiun]

I was more talking about if there were an issue with how things are already being done.